Saturday, January 28, 2017

-The Case for a Stronger Russian Ruble and Growth in its Economy?????

Under President Obama's reign Russia has suffered from USA and possibly international sanctions while Russia has been in a depression due to a collapse of oil prices ( which is one of Russia's biggest exports). President Trump wants to remove sanctions, which will allow for Russia's economy to improve. Also, the USA will have a hands off approach in Syria which will allow Russia and Syria to gain control of Syria and win the war. Russia will have full power over Syria due to its extreme help during the war. Because of a possible Russian victory in Syria the Russian currency will strengthen as well. A strong economy and a stronger currency will possibly be a scenario.

The most important concept of stock market trading

-the most important question is, " why now?, why will the stock go up now? Out of all moments? Price targets and mentally our brains can interpret prime technical analysis without us even knowing it. This technical analysis is subconscious, we know when a stock has hit its lowest point. A money manager can know what a stock will do in the future, but that stock will only be a buy if he KNOWS that NOW is the time to buy. He must feel it, see it, and know that this will unavoidably come to pass. A winning stock pick is less about what the ticker is and more about "NOW IS THE TIME"

*High debt to GDP ratios are scarier in 3rd world countries than in 1st world countries*



Is debt to GDP important in 1st world countries?
GDP is the TOTAL products in the country. It includes services and products sold, correct?
In the East Asian Financial Crisis, at its WORST countries has up to 180% debt to GDP ratios. These countries had currencies that were quickly becoming worthless. Debt can cripple a country, but USA already has about a 100% debt to GDP ratio.  This country of course is credible enough to get more lenders to pump up to 180% debt to GDP ratio! But this 100% ratio is not scary because the government is powerful enough to collect even more taxes. But poor countries with such high Debt to GDP ratio are extremely risky because those governments often do not have the power or the organization to collect more taxes. His high debt to GDP ratios in rich countries are not as credible of a threat-as it would be in a poor country. Think about the infrastructure in India- only CANNOT find those who refuse to pay taxes. People can easily slip through the corners in India because there are probably no government identification, and many people live under bridges or in hard to find locations without mailboxes. One cannot tax a nation of untrackable people. And taxing the people more may cause more unrest in a poor country because often they are taxed little.